On the timing of political regime changes in resource-dependent economies

We consider a resource-dependent economy initially ruled by the elite. The transition from the autocratic to a more democratic regime takes place only if the citizens decide to revolt against the elite. The occurrence of a revolution primarily depends on the autocratic regime vulnerability and the level of inequalities, both being driven by the elite׳s redistribution and repression policies. First, we show that when a political transition is inevitable, the elite choose the maximum rate of redistribution to lengthen their period in office. Second, we find that the duration of the autocratic regime is linked to resource abundance, and how it relates to the elite׳s policies. More resources lead to a shorter reign of a redistributive regime, which may not be the case of a repressive regime. Finally, we interpret the Arab spring sequence in light of our findings.     

版权保护期限优化设计实证研究——基于56个国家和地区的数据分析

版权保护具有时间限制,这是世界各国的立法通例,也是版权法平衡作者个人利益和社会公共利益的一种必要手段。本文对56个国家和地区的版权保护期限与版权贸易的关系进行了实证分析,结果显示,版权保护期限随着版权贸易的增加起初提高然后降低,两者呈倒U型关系,此拐点的人均创意及其相关产业物品进出口贸易额为4233．074美元,版权保护期限为72．386年。     

中国A、B、H股间市场一体化进程研究——基于SKEWED-T-GJR-COPULA方法的实证检验

本文通过构建动态Copula方法,以相依性作为股市间一体化整合指标,考察了1994年至2009年A、B、H股间的一体化进程,发现A股间的一体化基本达到完全整合,两B股间也达到了很高的水平,这两组市场的整合主要在1995年到1997年完成的。A股与B股间一体化程度也较高,其中亚洲金融危机和2001年2月B股改革推动了两市场的整合。而A、B股与H股间的一体化程度相对较低,它们间的整合开始较晚但仍在进行,其中股权分置改革和QDII的实施具有较大的推动作用。另外,中国金融市场如汇率、银行等的改革可能也提高了A、B股与H股的整合速度。     

基于Crystal Ball的PERT网络计划项目工期风险分析

文章介绍了网络计划技术,对PERT网络计划项目各活动持续时间的确定进行了分析,总结了使用Crystal Ball进行风险分析的步骤,构建了某PERT网络计划项目各活动的时间参数的Excel模型。在此基础上,使用Crystal Ball建立该项目的工期风险分析模型,并对该模型进行风险分析,获得有效的分析结果。     

寿险合同持续期的实证研究:一个契约的视角

本文将寿险合同持续期,作为研究的对象。以契约经济学的方法,分析保险合同,将影响持续期的因素分为:投保人特点、保险人行为以及契约外部环境。运用来自山东某人寿保险公司的保单数据,研究了各类因素对持续期的影响。极大似然估计的结果显示,三类因素对寿险合同持续期都有显著影响。其中,服务质量、职业风险以及定期存款利率对契约持续的影响最大。另外,收入、年龄、同业竞争,也对持续期有显著影响。     

The Capitalization of Public Services and Amenities into Land Prices — Empirical Evidence from German Communities

Applying the hedonic approach to land prices, this article investigates the capitalization of public services and pure amenities in a cross section of German communities. Possible spillover effects from neighboring municipalities are explicitly included in the analysis and prove to be of considerable importance. Estimates of the impacts of local attributes on land prices are obtained taking into account the spatial structure among unobserved variables. The results confirm that differences in land prices are largely attributable to local conditions and policies. This implies a significant degree of mobility as well as high estimation of local attributes on the part of German households.     

Product Patent Reform and its Impact on Korea's Pharmaceutical Industry

Our analysis focuses on the effect of U.S. government pressure on Korea to adopt product patents for chemical and pharmaceutical products. American pressure began in November 1985 and ended with the Korean Legislature's passage of a new patent law in December 1986. We conduct an event study of the effect of the new patent law on the value of Korean pharmaceutical firms listed on the Korea Stock Exchange. Regression analysis shows that the new law induced excess returns of-74 percent over the 14-month analysis period. The results suggest that adoption of stronger patent laws reduced Korea's wealth. [G14, O34]     

Criteria for the Stochastic Ordering of Random Sums,with Actuarial Applications

It is shown that vectors ( S M 1 , … , S Mn ) and ( S' M'1 , …, S' M'n ) of random sums of positive random variables are stochastically ordered by upper orthant dependence, lower orthant dependence, concordance or by the supermodular ordering whenever their corresponding random numbers of terms ( M 1 , … , M n ) and ( M' 1 , … , M' n ) are themselves ordered in this fashion. Actuarial applications of these results are given to different dependence structures for the collective risk model with several classes of business.     

A generalized algorithm for duration and convexity of option embedded bonds

This article derives a generalized algorithm for duration and convexity of option embedded bonds that provides a convenient way of estimating the dollar value of 1 basis point change in yield known as DV01, an important metric in the bond market. As delta approaches 1, duration of callable bonds approaches zero once the bond is called. However, when the delta is zero, the short call is worthless and duration of callable will be equal to that of a straight bond. On the other hand, the convexity of a callable bond follows the same behaviour when the delta is 1 as shown in Dunetz and Mahoney (1988) as well as in Mehran and Homaifar’s (1993) derivations. However, in the case when delta is zero, the convexity of a callable bond approaches zero as well, which is in stark contrast to the non-zero convexity derived in Dunetz and Mahoney’s paper. Our generalized algorithm shows that duration and convexity nearly symmetrically underestimate (overestimate) the actual price change by 11/10 basis points for ± 100 basis points change in yield. Furthermore, our algorithm reduces to that of MH for convertible bonds assuming the convertible bond is not callable.     

我国固定资产投资的投入产出分析

产业投资经济效果是经济增长质量的标志,提高产业投资的经济效果是可持续发展的客观要求,也是提高资源利用效率的客观要求。本文利用投入产出模型分析了我国产业投资的经济效果的现状并提出相应的对策建议,为宏观管理部门提供决策参考。